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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-06T13:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29015/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T12:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 39.42 hour(s)
Difference: -3.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-02-08T16:59Z

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